🍪 MONDELĒZ INTERNATIONAL (NASDAQ: MDLZ)

STOCKINSIGHT™ STOCK INITIATION REPORT

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📋 MANAGEMENT SUMMARY

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• We maintain a BUY / OVERWEIGHT rating on Mondelēz International.

• At $62.48, MDLZ offers an attractive combination of defensive earnings, pricing power, a growing global snack portfolio, and improving margin prospects following a difficult cocoa inflation cycle.

• Mondelez reported a strong Q2 earnings beat on July 28, exceeding Wall Street expectations on both revenue and earnings while raising its 2026 organic sales outlook, signaling improving business momentum.

• Falling cocoa costs, resilient consumer demand, and strong performance across emerging markets have materially improved investor sentiment.

• Key catalyst: Continued margin expansion, lower commodity costs, and successful commercialization of new snack products.

🟢 RATING: BUY / OVERWEIGHT

🎯 12-MONTH PRICE TARGET: $72

💵 CURRENT PRICE: $62.48

📈 IMPLIED UPSIDE: +15.2%

💰 DIVIDEND YIELD: ~2.2%

🗓️ LATEST EARNINGS: Q2 2026 – Reported July 28, 2026

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⚡ QUICK SNAPSHOT

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🏢 Market Cap: ~$82B

🍫 Major Brands

• Oreo

• Cadbury

• Ritz

• Chips Ahoy!

• Toblerone

• Triscuit

• Sour Patch Kids

📦 Investment Theme

Global Snacking Leader + Pricing Power + Defensive Consumer Staple

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📈 STOCK PERFORMANCE

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💵 Current Price: $62.48

🟢 Recovering following strong earnings.

🟢 Defensive outperformer during periods of market volatility.

⚠️ Still below last year’s highs, leaving room for multiple expansion.

📊 Relative Performance

✅ Strong cash generation.

✅ Global diversification.

✅ Improving gross margins.

⚠️ Premium valuation versus some food peers.

🔥 Momentum Trend

➡️ Momentum has turned bullish following the earnings release.

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📰 WHAT CHANGED RECENTLY?

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Mondelez delivered one of its strongest quarters in recent years.

Highlights

🟢 Revenue: $9.36B vs. $9.20B expected

🟢 Adjusted EPS: $0.73 vs. $0.68 expected

🟢 Organic sales guidance raised to at least 2% growth for 2026.

🟢 Adjusted EPS outlook reaffirmed.

Management highlighted improving cocoa costs, resilient pricing, and particularly strong growth across Latin America and emerging markets.

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📰 RECENT NEWS FLOW (LAST 2 WEEKS)

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🟢 Positive Developments

✅ Q2 earnings beat both revenue and EPS expectations, driven by resilient demand for Oreo, Cadbury, and biscuit products.

✅ Management raised its organic revenue growth outlook while maintaining strong free cash flow guidance, boosting investor confidence.

🔴 Negative Developments

⚠️ Cocoa prices remain above long-term historical averages despite recent improvement, leaving commodity cost risk elevated.

⚠️ North American snack demand remains softer than emerging markets, requiring continued promotional activity.

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🚀 INVESTMENT THESIS

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Mondelez continues evolving from:

➡️ Traditional packaged food company

into

➡️ Global premium snacking leader.

Key positives:

✅ Powerful global brands

✅ Pricing power

✅ Improving commodity environment

✅ Strong emerging market growth

✅ Excellent free cash flow

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🔥 3 CORE BULLISH PILLARS

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1️⃣ Global Brand Portfolio

✔ Oreo

✔ Cadbury

✔ Ritz

✔ Toblerone

Our View:

➡️ Few consumer companies possess a snack portfolio of comparable quality.

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2️⃣ Margin Recovery

✔ Lower cocoa costs

✔ Pricing remains strong

✔ Better operating leverage

Our View:

➡️ Gross margins should continue expanding through 2027.

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3️⃣ Emerging Market Growth

✔ Latin America

✔ Asia

✔ Middle East & Africa

Our View:

➡️ Emerging markets remain MDLZ’s biggest long-term growth driver.

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📊 FINANCIAL SNAPSHOT

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💰 FY26E (Current Fiscal Year)

Revenue: ~$38.5B

Organic Growth: 2%+

EPS: ~$3.25

Free Cash Flow: ~$3B

Dividend: Growing

💰 FY27E

Revenue Growth: Mid-Single Digits

EPS Growth: High-Single Digits

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📈 OUR VIEW VS WALL STREET

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Pricing Power

Consensus: Strong

Our View: Sustainable

Margins

Consensus: Improving

Our View: Better than expected

Valuation

Consensus: Fair

Our View: Attractive

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📅 POSITIVE CATALYSTS

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🟢 Continued cocoa cost relief

🟢 Margin expansion

🟢 Emerging market growth

🟢 Product innovation

🟢 Dividend growth

🟢 Share repurchases

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⚠️ NEGATIVE CATALYSTS

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🔴 Cocoa price spike

🔴 Consumer trading down

🔴 FX headwinds

🔴 Slower North American demand

🔴 Commodity inflation returns

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📊 SENTIMENT & POSITIONING

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✅ Institutional ownership remains very strong.

✅ Investors increasingly favor defensive consumer staples.

✅ Earnings momentum has improved.

⚠️ Expectations have risen after the earnings beat.

Market Sentiment:

➡️ Bullish with improving earnings momentum.

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🐂 BULL VS 🐻 BEAR CASE

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🐂 Bull Case: $78

✔ Cocoa costs continue falling

✔ Margins expand faster

✔ Emerging markets outperform

✔ Premium multiple returns

🐻 Bear Case: $55

⚠️ Commodity inflation returns

⚠️ Consumer demand weakens

⚠️ Pricing power fades

🎯 Base Case: $72

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🎯 SUPPORT & RESISTANCE LEVELS

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🟢 Key Support Levels

S1: $60

S2: $57

S3: $54

🔴 Key Resistance Levels

R1: $65

R2: $68

R3: $72

📌 Trading Interpretation

➡️ Holding above $60 keeps the recovery trend intact.

➡️ A breakout above $65 could quickly target the $68-$72 area.

➡️ Following the strong earnings report, momentum has shifted back in favor of the bulls.

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📉 TECHNICAL SETUP

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📈 Long-Term Trend: Bullish

📊 Relative Strength: Improving

🔥 Momentum: Positive

⚠️ Volatility: Low

💰 Valuation: Attractive

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✅ FINAL TAKE

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Mondelez delivered exactly what investors wanted to see this quarter: strong earnings, higher sales guidance, improving margins, and resilient global demand. The combination of easing cocoa costs and continued pricing power provides a favorable backdrop for earnings growth over the next 12–18 months.

At $62.48, MDLZ offers investors:

✅ A world-class portfolio of snack brands

✅ Defensive cash flows

✅ Improving margins

✅ A growing dividend

✅ Mid-teens upside potential

We continue to view Mondelez as one of the highest-quality defensive consumer staples with an attractive risk/reward profile.

🟢 RATING: BUY / OVERWEIGHT

🎯 PRICE TARGET: $72

📈 UPSIDE POTENTIAL: +15.2%

Risk Level: 🔥🔥 Low-Medium

Reward Potential: 🔥🔥🔥 Medium-High

Conviction: ⭐⭐⭐⭐☆ (8.5/10)

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