Econonomic Events Glossary
Factory Orders in Germany are reported using monthly changes in the volume of new orders received by manufacturers. Factory Order figures in Germany can be very volatile and misleading because they are heavily affected by geopolitical events, temporary shocks in demand and business deals which may only happen once.
In the Euro Area, retail sales show the evolution of the total amount of goods sold. Among them, food drinks and tobacco account for the highest share (39.3 percent); followed by electrical goods and furniture (12.0 percent share); computer equipment books and other (11.4 percent share); pharmaceutical and medical goods (9.9 percent share); textiles, clothing, footwear (9.2 percent share); auto fuel (9.1 percent share); other non-food products (6.0 percent share) and mail orders and internet (2.9 percent share). Among countries, Germany has the highest weight (25.9 percent), followed by France (21.7 percent), Italy (16.1 percent) and Spain (11.4 percent). Others are Netherlands (5.2 percent); Belgium (4.3 percent); Greece (3.0 percent); Austria (2.8 percent); Portugal (2.4 percent); Finland (1.8 percent); Ireland (1.7 percent); Luxembourg and Slovakia (0.8 percent each); Slovenia (0.6 percent); Lithuania (0.4 percent); Latvia and Cyprus (0.3 percent); Estonia (0.2 percent) and Malta (0.1 percent).
The S&P Global US Services PMI is compiled by S&P Global from responses to questionnaires sent to a panel of around 400 service sector companies. The sectors covered include consumer (excluding retail), transport, information, communication, finance, insurance, real estate and business services. The index tracks variables such as sales, employment, inventories and prices; and varies between 0 and 100, with a reading above 50 indicating an overall increase compared to the previous month, and below 50 an overall decrease. The headline figure is the Services Business Activity Index, which is a diffusion index calculated from a question that asks for changes in the volume of business activity compared with one month previously. The Services Business Activity Index is comparable to the Manufacturing Output Index. This is only a limited sample of PMI headline data displayed on the Customer’s service, under licence from S&P Global. Full historic PMI headline data and all other PMI sub-index data and histories are available on subscription from S&P Global. Contact economics@spglobal.com for more details.
In the United States, the S&P Global Composite PMI Output Index, which is a weighted average of the Manufacturing Output Index and the Services Business Activity Index, tracks business trends across both manufacturing and service sectors. The index is based on data collected from a representative panel of over 800 companies and follows variables such as sales, new orders, employment, inventories and prices. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in business activity while below 50 points to contraction. This is only a limited sample of PMI headline data displayed on the Customer’s service, under licence from S&P Global. Full historic PMI headline data and all other PMI sub-index data and histories are available on subscription from S&P Global. Contact economics@spglobal.com for more details.
The Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business® is based on data compiled from purchasing and supply executives nationwide. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month. For each of the indicators measured (Business Activity, New Orders, Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders, Inventory Change, Inventory Sentiment, Imports, Prices, Employment and Supplier Deliveries) this report shows the percentage reporting each response, and the diffusion index. An index reading above 50 percent indicates that the non-manufacturing economy in that index is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally declining. Orders to the service producers make up about 90 percent of the US economy.
For China, the consumer price index (CPI) measures changes in the prices of goods and services consumed by households. Such changes affect the real purchasing power of consumers’ incomes and their welfare. In practice, the official CPI of China measures the change in the level of prices for a specified basket of goods and services normally purchased by urban and rural residents.
In the United States, the Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index provides a measure of the prices paid for domestic purchases of goods and services. While the Consumer Price Index assumes a fixed basket of goods and uses expenditure weights that do not change over time for several years, the Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index uses a chain index and resorts on expenditure data from the current period and the preceding period (known as Fisher Price Index).
Inflationary or deflationary tendencies are measured by periodically summing the prices of a basket of representative goods and services and presenting the data as the Consumer Price Index (CPI). CPI data is compiled on a monthly basis and released by the US Department of Labor Statistics. The MoM print compares the prices of goods in the reference month to the previous month.The CPI Ex Food & Energy excludes the so-called more volatile food and energy components to give a more accurate measurement of price pressures. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as bullish for the US Dollar (USD), while a low reading is seen as bearish.
In the United States, industrial production measures the output of businesses integrated in industrial sector of the economy. Manufacturing is the most important sector and accounts for 78 percent of total production. The biggest segments within Manufacturing are: Chemicals (12 percent of total production); food, drink and tobacco (11 percent); machinery (6 percent); fabricated metal products (6 percent); computer and electronic products (6 percent); and motor vehicles and parts (6 percent). Mining and quarrying account for 11 percent of production and utilities account for the remaining 11 percent.
The Index of Consumer Expectations focuses on three areas: how consumers view prospects for their own financial situation, how they view prospects for the general economy over the near term, and their view of prospects for the economy over the long term. Each monthly survey contains approximately 50 core questions, each of which tracks a different aspect of consumer attitudes and expectations. The samples for the Surveys of Consumers are statistically designed to be representative of all American households, excluding those in Alaska and Hawaii. Each month, a minimum of 500 interviews are conducted by telephone.
In Euro Area, the Consumer Economic Sentiment Indicator measures the level of optimism that consumers have about the economy. The survey is made by phone and covers 23 000 households in the Euro Area. The number of households sample varies across the zone. The questions focus on current economic and financial situation, savings intention as well as on expected developments regarding: consumer price indexes, general economic situation and major purchases of durable goods. The Consumer ESI measures consumer confidence on a scale of -100 to 100, where -100 indicate extreme lack of confidence, 0 neutrality and 100 extreme confidence.
The Housing Price Index released by the Federal Housing Finance Agency provides an estimated value of housing market conditions. It is an important indicator as the housing market is considered as a sensitive factor to the US economy. Generally speaking, a high reading is seen as positive (or bullish) for the USD, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).
The ADP National Employment Report measures levels of non-farm private employment. The Report is based on the actual payroll data from about 25 million employees and is produced by the ADP Research Institute in collaboration with the Stanford Digital Economy Lab.
Nonfarm payrolls is an employment report released monthly, usually on the first Friday of every month, and heavily affects the US dollar, the bond market and the stock market. Current Employment Statistics (CES) program from the U.S. Department of Labor Bureau of Labor Statistics, surveys about 141,000 businesses and government agencies, representing approximately 486,000 individual work sites, in order to provide detailed industry data on employment, hours, and earnings of workers on nonfarm payrolls.
In China, the Caixin Manufacturing PMI Purchasing Managers’ Index measures the performance of the manufacturing sector and is derived from a survey of private 430 industrial companies. The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index is based on five individual indexes with the following weights: New Orders (30 percent), Output (25 percent), Employment (20 percent), Suppliers’ Delivery Times (15 percent) and Stock of Items Purchased (10 percent), with the Delivery Times index inverted so that it moves in a comparable direction. A reading above 50 indicates an expansion of the manufacturing sector compared to the previous month; below 50 represents a contraction; while 50 indicates no change. This is only a limited sample of PMI headline data displayed on the Customer’s service, under licence from S&P Global. Full historic PMI headline data and all other PMI sub-index data and histories are available on subscription from S&P Global. Contact economics@spglobal.com for more details.
Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) is the primary measure of consumer spending on goods and services in the U.S. economy. 1 It accounts for about two-thirds of domestic final spending, and thus it is the primary engine that drives future economic growth. PCE shows how much of the income earned by households is being spent on current consumption as opposed to how much is being saved for future consumption. PCE also provides a comprehensive measure of types of goods and services that are purchased by households. Thus, for example, it shows the portion of spending that is accounted for by discretionary items, such as motor vehicles, or the adjustments that consumers make to changes in prices, such as a sharp run-up in gasoline prices.
The Labour Cost Index in the European Union is a short-term indicator showing the development of hourly labour costs incurred by employers, in nominal terms, that is without adjusting for price developments. It is calculated dividing the labour cost in national currency by the number of hours worked. The quarterly changes in hourly employers’ costs are measured for total labour costs and its main components: wages and salaries; and non-wage costs (labour costs other than wages and salaries). Total labour costs (TOT) cover wage and non-wage costs less subsidies. They do not include vocational training costs or other expenditures such as recruitment costs, spending on working clothes, etc.
The Manufacturing ISM Report On Business is based on data compiled from purchasing and supply executives nationwide. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month. For each of the indicators measured (New Orders, Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders, Imports, Production, Supplier Deliveries, Inventories, Customers’ Inventories, Employment and Prices), the report shows the percentage reporting each response, the net difference between the number of responses in the positive economic direction and the negative economic direction, and the diffusion index. A PMI reading above 50 percent indicates that the manufacturing economy is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally declining.US ISM Manufacturing PMI
The Non-Manufacturing ISM Report On Business is based on data compiled from purchasing and supply executives nationwide. Survey responses reflect the change, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month. For each of the indicators measured (Business Activity, New Orders, Backlog of Orders, New Export Orders, Inventory Change, Inventory Sentiment, Imports, Prices, Employment and Supplier Deliveries) this report shows the percentage reporting each response, and the diffusion index. An index reading above 50 percent indicates that the non-manufacturing economy in that index is generally expanding; below 50 percent indicates that it is generally declining. Orders to the service producers make up about 90 percent of the US economy.
The employment gauge in the ISM Non Manufacturing PMI rose to 51.8 in February of 2026 from 50.3 in the previous month, the highest in one year. ISM Non Manufacturing Employment in the United States averaged 51.56 points from 1997 until 2026, reaching an all time high of 60.30 points in January of 2018 and a record low of 29.30 points in April of 2020.
ISM Non Manufacturing Prices in the United States decreased to 63 points in February from 66.60 points in January of 2026. ISM Non Manufacturing Prices in the United States averaged 60.12 points from 1997 until 2026, reaching an all time high of 84.50 points in December of 2021 and a record low of 36.10 points in December of 2008.
The Zentrum fur Europaische Wirtschaftsforschung (ZEW) Economic Sentiment Index rates the relative six-month economic outlook for the euro zone. On the index, a level above zero indicates optimism, below indicates pessimism. It is a leading indicator of economic health. The reading is compiled from survey of about 350 German institutional investors and analysts. A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the EUR, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the EUR.
Retail sales report in the US provides aggregated measure of sales of retail goods and services over a period of a month. There are thirteen major types of retailers: Nonstore retailers (20% of total sales), Motor vehicle & parts dealers (18%), Food services & drinking places (13%), Food & beverage stores (12%), General merchandise stores (10%), Gasoline stations (7%), Building material & garden dealers (6%), Health & personal care stores (5%), Clothing & clothing accessories stores (4%), Miscellaneous store retailers (2%), Furniture stores (2%), Electronics & appliance stores (1%), and Sporting goods, hobby, book & music stores (1%).
In the European Union, the main components of the HICP are: Food and non-alcoholic beverages (17% of the total weight); Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels (15%); Transport (15%); Miscellaneous goods and services (10%); Restaurants and hotels (10%); and Recreation and culture (9%). Other categories include Furnishings, household equipment and routine household maintenance (7%); Health (5%); Clothing and footwear (5%). Alcoholic beverages, tobacco and narcotics, Communications and Education account for the remaining 8%.
A sale of the new house occurs with the signing of a sales contract or the acceptance of a deposit. The house can be in any stage of construction: not yet started, under construction, or already completed. New home sales account for about 10 percent of the US housing market. New single-family home sales are extremely volatile month-to-month and preliminary figures are subject to large revisions because they are mostly drawn from building permits data.
In Germany, the IFO Business Climate Index measures entrepreneurs’ sentiment about current business situation and their expectations for the next 6 months. The survey is made by phone and covers 9,000 firms in manufacturing, the service sector, trade and construction. The Business Climate Balance is constructed as the difference between the percentage share of executives that are optimistic and the share that are pessimistic. This balance can take values between -100 (all responding firms assess their situation as poor and expect business to deteriorate) and +100 (all responding firms assessed their situation as good and expect an improvement in their business). For the calculation of the IFO Business Climate Index, the Balance is normalized to the average of a base year (currently 2015).
The IFO Current Assessment released by the CESifo Group is closely watched as an indicator of current conditions and business expectations in Germany. The Institute surveys more than 7,000 enterprises on their assessment of the business situation and their short-term planning. The positive economic growth anticipates bullish movements for the EUR, while a low reading is seen as negative (or bearish).
The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price Index measures changes in residential house prices in 20 metropolitan regions in the United States: Atlanta, Boston, Charlotte, Chicago, Cleveland, Dallas, Denver, Detroit, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Miami, Minneapolis, New York, Phoenix, Portland, San Diego, San Francisco, Seattle, Tampa and Washington D.C.
The Pending Home Sales Index, a leading indicator of housing activity, measures housing contract activity, and is based on signed real estate contracts for existing single-family homes, condos and co-ops. When a seller accepts a sales contract on a property, it is recorded into a Multiple Listing Service (MLS) as a “pending home sale.” The majority of pending home sales become home sale transactions, typically one to two months later. The National Association of Realtors collects pending home sales data from MLSs and large brokers. Altogether, data from over 100 MLSs & 60 large brokers is received providing a large sample size covering 50% of the existing home sales sample. This is equal to 20 percent of all transactions.
Challenger Job-Cut Report provides information on the number of announced corporate layoffs by industry and region.
In the United States, job openings refer to all positions that are open (not filled) on the last business day of the month. Job openings are part of the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS). The survey collects data from around 16400 nonfarm establishments including retailers and manufacturers, as well as federal, state, and local government entities in the 50 states and the District of Columbia. The JOLTS assesses the unmet demand for labor in the U.S. labor market and gained attention in 2014 as favorite labor market indicator of Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen.
The United States has been running consistent trade deficits since 1976 due to high imports of oil and consumer products. In 2022, the biggest trade deficits are recorded with China, Mexico, Vietnam, Canada, Germany, Japan, and Ireland, and the biggest trade surpluses with the Netherlands, Hong Kong, Brazil, Singapore, Australia, and United Kingdom. Canada is the top trading partner, accounting for 15 percent of total trade, followed by Mexico (14 percent) and China (13 percent).
In the United States, the unemployment rate measures the number of people actively looking for a job as a percentage of the labour force.er 100 MLSs & 60 large brokers is received providing a large sample size covering 50% of the existing home sales sample. This is equal to 20 percent of all transactions.
In the United States, the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure Price Index provides a measure of the prices paid by people for domestic purchases of goods and services, excluding the prices of food and energy. The core PCE is the Fed’s preferred inflation measure. The central bank has a 2 percent target.
Commonly known as the Beige Book, this report is published eight times per year. Each Federal Reserve Bank gathers anecdotal information on current economic conditions in its District through reports from Bank and Branch directors and interviews with key business contacts, economists, market experts, and other sources. The Beige Book summarizes this information by District and sector. An overall summary of the twelve district reports is prepared by a designated Federal Reserve Bank on a rotating basis.
The Johnson Redbook Index is a sales-weighted of year-over-year same-store sales growth in a sample of large US general merchandise retailers representing about 9,000 stores. Same-store sales are sales in stores continuously open for 12 months or longer. By dollar value, the Index represents over 80% of the equivalent ‘official’ retail sales series collected and published by the US Department of Commerce. Redbook compiles the Index by collecting and interpreting performance estimates from retailers. The Index and its sub-groups are sales-weighted aggregates of these estimates. Weeks are retail weeks (Sunday to Saturday), and equally weighted within the month.
